longevity of a shareware game

On indieforum site my friend cliffsky asked an interesting question about market saturation.
Many people agreed that there’s no need to worry about them in indie market. I believe it so, even if I am not too enthusiastic about it. I believe it all depends on what COMPETITION you have.
Say you make another of those align 3 color game… unless it has a good graphics or at least some innovative ideas (very hard), you’re likely to sell close to zero :P
Same thing applies for all kind of games. If you make a basketball management game, and there’s little competition, you might continue to sell it for 10 years. But if after 2 months another similar game comes out which beats yours 10 a zero, you’ll sell much less.
Still, my first game USM was basically a soccer management game like the Championship manager series with only one advantage over it: the speed of execution. That was enough and is still enough to get some sales every month, after 2 years… ;)

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