What a charming title for a blog post, uh? haha

Well, sadly, I think this year could be the year. Let me explain what I mean by this. I mean the death of visual novels as a viable indie developer genre, not the death of visual novels as genre!

Rather the opposite, indeed. Last year I asked my old friend Ichiro about some Steam visual novel stats and this was the result:

Yes you read it right, in August and November 2024 there were 199 new VNs released in a month. In December, 156. In January 2025, 186.

That means that players see roughly 7 new VNs a day on Steam. A day! Imagine opening Netflix and every day there are 7 new shows to watch. You wouldn’t even have time to do check the trailers !

So, for players it’s a very good moment, but for developers? It’s super tough, of course.

What is the reason?

That’s the next question of course. Well, VNs are probably the easiest kind of game to make. So that’s the start. But recently, there’s another element which is making the overall development even easier: the advent of AI, and Steam accepting AI in games.

Until early 2024 (I think, I don’t remember exactly) Steam had a strict anti-AI policy, but then they allowed it, providing devs disclosed any use of it. And guess what? A lot of devs started using it. I know many players are against AI, but apparently the majority isn’t (also maybe in the adult games category, people really don’t care much lol).

So while before anyone could make a game, but they still had to pay character artists, background art, music, and even a writer if they didn’t know how to write, now they can do all those things with AI, saving a lot of money.

Because let’s be honest – the first thing that catches interest in a game like a visual novel is the art. You can write the best story ever, but if there isn’t nice art, most people aren’t going to buy and play your game.

Personally, I find AI generated art all soulless and even ugly / unrealistic. But this is my personal opinion. Let’s go on with the reasoning.

But wait, things can get worse!

A consequence of this influx of games is the likely onset of a price war—and to some extent, it’s already begun. This could play out in one of two ways:

1. Lower Prices: Games that would typically sell for $15–$20 may now be priced at $5–$10 to remain competitive.
2. Overloaded Content: Developers might keep the original price tag but pack their games with massive amounts of content—such as 8–12 love interests, 100 CGs, animations, full voice acting, and more—to justify the cost and attract players.

So, once again, for players it’s only good news – more bang for their bucks! But for devs ? Uhh, things aren’t going to be great!

For established devs like me who have a following, things are already tough (I barely broke even with my last 2-3 games) but for starting indies? I honestly I wouldn’t want to be an aspiring visual novel dev right now.

I know this whole post might seem depressing, but I swear I’m only trying to warn people about the current state of the market, nothing more, nothing less. Then of course, there are still chances to make money, but it’s important to keep expectations low, very low.

In a way the VN market is becoming similar to the books market – where the 1% earns 99% of the money, and most of people fail to make a living with it. So, nothing new, really.

What am I planning to do?

I plan to keep working on the current projects of course, and in particular Thieves of Dingirra and games that have more complex gameplay added to the visual novel genre. I think in future might be even more important, to add extra gameplay to differentiate your game from the huge crowd of VNs.

However, I don’t want to hide that at the end of this year I’ll need to review a bit the results and then I might be forced to make a choice – simply stop making simple visual novels (which would be a pity since sometimes I like to just write a story without having to design gameplay or code), or maybe be very careful when planning the budgets.

Another thing is that in the past in several games I overspent, using all crowdfunded+patreon money and adding funds from my own pocket because I wanted the game to turn out the best possible, but sadly it had no noticeable impact on the sales.

As you can imagine, raising funds to use them all to pay artists and then earn less than a minimum salary isn’t a sustainable long term strategy! Also, in the last 3-4 years felt like that my games’ success was all a bit random, and depending ONLY on the game idea/setting, art, kink and so on. Like if all the work behind it meant nothing. Totally based on the Steam “algorithm”. Ugh.

This is what surprised me mostly! It was like “you need to chunk out cheap games as quickly as possible, hoping to hit a jackpot, and nothing else matters”. You add a theme song? no impact. You spend $2k on beautiful hand drawn backgrounds? no impact. You spend lot of time writing interesting dialogues? sure, lots of praise in the reviews, but for sales? no impact. And so on. It’s… a bit depressing, really!

Conclusions

One last thing: this is not something exclusive to visual novels, there’s a sort of global crisis of game development companies all around the world. I think though, for the reasons above, that VN is one of the genres that are suffering mostly from this. On Steam you’d have better chances of making money doing a roguelike, strategy, survival, sim, etc, the less crowded genres.

Anyway, let’s see what happens first, since I have high hopes for the games I plan to finish this year! Also, a friend doing adult games commented on my games saying that the main issue is not having a male protagonist (which apparently is very important considering the Steam target market), so who knows maybe that will change things in the next months! Thieves of Dingirra will have all the romance combos, and the unannounced game will be boy x girl exclusively.

Speaking of Christine’s Care, I am planning the beta later this month, since all the art is basically done, and the final release sometimes in March! So if you haven’t yet please wishlist the game on Steam.

Sorry if the post sounds too negative. I’m honestly not too worried for myself, I’ve been indie since over 20 years and I’m confident I can always find a solution. But I think young devs approaching the VN world needs to know the challenges that they’re going to face! And if you’re one, good luck !